RPI explainer on Iowa high school football and Week 9 games

Playoff spots aren't always easy to calculate in Iowa high school football.

It's not always as simple as wins and losses as the RPI (Ratings Percentage Index) determines many outcomes. To simplify things, we'll explain what exactly RPI is, what the different tiebreakers are, and what games to watch Friday night in Classes 5A, 4A and 3A.

What is RPI in Iowa high school football?

RPI is measured by a team's record, the record of their opponents, and the records of the teams their opponents have played against. Each of these categories is weighted differently: a team's win rate is weighted at 37.5%, their opponents' win rate is also weighted at 37.5%, and the win rate of the teams their opponents played against is weighted at 25%.

The formula is as follows:

RPI = (.375 × team winning percentage) + (.375 × opponent winning percentage) + (.25 × winning percentage of teams their opponents played)

From there, a ranking is created for each class based on their final RPI metric. For example, let's take West Des Moines Valley and Ankeny's RPI metrics after the Hawks beat Valley last weekend:

Valley: (.375 × .7500) + (.375 × .5139) + (.25 × .5478) = .6109
Ankeny: (.375 × .5000) + (.375 × .6528) + (.25 × .5247) = .5247

Although Ankeny earned the outright win and played teams with better records than Valley, the Tigers' 6-2 record far exceeds Ankeny's 4-4 record. Valley is ranked No. 7 in Class 5A RPI and Ankeny is No. 12.

In Class 5A, the top 16 teams in RPI secure a playoff bid. In Classes 4A and 3A, the champion and runner-up in each district automatically qualify for the playoffs, making up 12 of 16 teams in the field. The remaining four overall bids are the highest remaining teams in the RPI.

The top 16 teams in the 5A RPI enter the final week of the regular season: Bettendorf, Iowa City Liberty, Dowling Catholic, Johnston, Linn-Mar, Pleasant Valley, WDM Valley, Sioux City East, Iowa City High, Ankeny Centennial, Iowa City West, Ankeny, Ottumwa, Waterloo West, Southeast Polk, Waukee

Games to watch for spots in the Iowa high school football playoffs

Rankings are derived from the IHSAA's calculated RPI

Class 5A

No. 13 Ottumwa vs. No. 14 Waterloo West
No. 15 Southeast Polk vs. No. 35 Des Moines Lincoln
No. 16 Waukee vs. No. 18 Council Bluffs Lincoln
No. 17 Cedar Falls vs. No. 36 Davenport West
No. 19 Dubuque Hempstead vs. No. 28 Davenport Central
No. 20 Davenport North vs. No. 25 Cedar Rapids Kennedy

A win for Ottumwa or Waterloo West would secure you a spot in the playoffs, and a loss means you're at the mercy of your subordinates and have to spend a few sleepless hours waiting for results, especially for the team you're with Waterloo West then 5-4 would have been a loss. It's more likely that Ottumwa stays considering a loss would make it just 7-2.

Southeast Polk and Waukee would secure playoff bids with wins. Cedar Falls wouldn't move much in its individual RPI metric with a win over 0-8 Davenport West, but will be close to finishing in the top 16 based on results statewide.

Dubuque Hempstead and Davenport North are each underdogs given their opponents' lack of RPI strength, but a spate of losses in front of them could open a gap.

Class 4A, District 5

Ballard versus Boone
Indianola vs. Des Moines North

Class 4A, District 4

Newton vs. Des Moines Hoover

We divide the districts into Classes 4A and 3A to more clearly distinguish the tiebreakers and explain some of the additional tiebreakers as we go along.

Currently, Ballard is in the mix despite ranking third in its district behind North Polk and ADM; Ballard's No. 14 ranking in the RPI rankings would earn him a wildcard spot. Right behind the Bombers are Indianola (No. 18) and Boone (No. 19) on the outside looking in, followed by Western Dubuque (No. 8), Clear Creek Amana (No. 12) and Newton (No. 15). the overall field.

While Ballard, Indianola and Boone cannot secure an automatic bid, wins would go a long way toward earning an overall bid. With Des Moines Hoover winless for Newton and Des Moines North winless for Indianola, the Ballard-Boone game is the most important game for the final overall spot.

Class 4A, District 1

Fort Dodge vs. Spencer
LeMars vs. Storm Lake

Spencer, Fort Dodge and LeMars are the top three teams in their district. Spencer would secure the district title with a win. LeMars has a straight win against Fort Dodge. If Fort Dodge loses, regardless of LeMars' result, LeMars would be the district's runner-up with either the same number of losses and the outright win or fewer losses in the district. Fort Dodge (No. 13 in the RPI) would wait until the night for a deployment.

If Fort Dodge and LeMars win, the 17-point tiebreaker opens to determine district placement and automatic playoff berth, as Spencer, Fort Dodge and LeMars would then suffer a loss in the district and neither team in the direct Duel stands head tiebreaker.

The 17-point tiebreaker rule takes into account a team's results in each district game and calculates its margin of victory. As the name of the tiebreaker suggests, there are a maximum of 17 points (positive for a win or negative for a loss) that can be attributed to a team's margin of victory. For example, last week Spencer defeated Storm Lake 46-6, but only 17 points would count in Spencer's win.

Class 3A, District 2

Webster City vs. Humboldt
Clear Lake vs. Charles City

Class 3A, District 5

In Class 3A, Carroll (No. 14 in RPI), MOC-Floyd Valley (No. 12), Clear Lake (No. 15) and Solon (No. 10) hold at-large bids as of Friday.

Given that Webster City (3-5) is playing Humboldt (7-1), it's unlikely the Lynx are prepared to make the playoffs. However, given their No. 19 RPI ranking, a win against Humboldt (No. 1) could put them in a good spot, as No. 15 Clear Lake has a crucial matchup against Charles City in the district. The same goes for Grinnell, which is ranked 16th in RPI and can't secure an automatic bid, but is close enough to earn an outright bid.

Class 3A, District 1

Bishop Heelan vs. MOC-Floyd Valley
Carroll vs. Boyden Hull/Rock Valley

Sergeant Bluff-Luton has already secured the district title.

With a win, Bishop Heelan secures second place in the district ahead of Carroll and MOC-Floyd Valley. If MOC-Floyd Valley wins, a Carroll loss would be needed to secure an automatic bid for second place in the district.

In the scenario that Carroll and MOC-Floyd Valley win, this would trigger the 17-point tiebreaker for second place in the district, as Carroll, MOC-Floyd Valley and Bishop Heelan do not have a direct tiebreaker, but each has two district losses . Either way, wins for Carroll or MOC-Floyd Valley would likely see them stick with their overall bids. Bishop Heelan has done enough with a No. 8 RPI ranking to stay in contention even in defeat.

Class 3A, District 3

Independence vs. Center Point-Urbana
West Delaware vs. Central DeWitt

Wahlert Catholic has already secured the district title. Independence would secure second place with a win.

Center Point-Urbana could clinch second place in the district with a win and a loss against West Delaware, but a West Delaware win and a Center-Point Urbana win would break the 17-point tiebreaker between Independence, CP-U and Open West Delaware.

Class 3A, District 4

Acceptance vs. Mount Pleasant
Washington vs. Fort Madison

Mount Vernon clinched that district title, while Assumption sits in second place despite a 3-5 record with just one district loss to Mount Vernon. With a win, Assumption would retain second place in the district and advance to the playoffs, as Mount Pleasant would then have three district losses and Washington would have two and a loss to Assumption.

If both Mount Pleasant and Washington win, it would trigger the 17-point tiebreaker for second place with Assumption, as each team has two losses in the district and would have beaten each other. Should Mount Pleasant win and Washington lose, Mount Pleasant would retain the tiebreaker over Assumption and have one fewer intra-district loss compared to Washington to secure second place in the district.

Class 3A, District 6

Nevada versus Atlantic
Creston v. Perry
Harlan vs. Knoxville

Nevada, Harlan and Creston all have an intradistrict loss. Nevada defeated Creston but lost to Harlan. Harlan lost to Creston. Atlantic has losses to Creston and Nevada.

As you can see from these results, there are multiple outcomes in play based on the results of these games here in this district. To avoid confusion, we will not go into detail about each point, but rather explain what is most likely to occur.

The most likely scenario, based on the rankings and previous head-to-head matchups, is that Nevada, Creston and Harlan all win. At that point, the 17-point tiebreaker rule would come into effect to determine the three-way tie for the final two spots. Nevada (+52) and Harlan (+36) have such high chances of winning that Creston (-1) mathematically could not surpass them in a week and would no longer have a place in the playoffs in this scenario.

Full tiebreakers can be viewed at ihsaa.org.

Eli McKown covers high school sports and wrestling for the Des Moines Register. Contact him at [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter at @EMcKown23.

Games to watch for spots in the Iowa high school football playoffs

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