The best NBA prop bets today (predictions for Luka Doncic, Alex Caruso, Chris Paul and Mo

The final NBA teams yet to debut in the 2024-25 season will do so on Thursday, namely the Dallas Mavericks against the San Antonio Spurs, the Denver Nuggets against the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Sacramento Kings and Washington Wizards of their own Encounters – both at home.

Washington faces Jayson Tatum and the 1-0 Boston Celtics, while Anthony Edwards and the Minnesota Timberwolves stay away for their second game of the season – this time against the Kings.

There are plenty of ways to bet on the NBA tonight, but I'm focusing this article on the props market for the four-game slate.

There are a few guards available tonight, including Doncic, but don't be afraid to take down a newcomer with an insanely high prop in his season debut.

Here I'm typing on tonight's props.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Luka Doncic OVER 29.5 points (-110)

Dallas Mavericks star Luka Doncic, the NBA's leading scorer last season, has a 29.5 point advantage against the San Antonio Spurs and is, in my opinion, massively underrated.

Yes, Spurs had a solid defense when Wemby was on the field, but they only finished 21st overall in defensive rating for the 2023-24 season.

Now Doncic has a chance to attack this defense with more offense in the starting lineup with Thompson in the mix.

Maybe this will lead to Luka passing the ball more often, but let's not forget that he averaged 32.4 and 33.9 points per game over the last two seasons, respectively.

Luka made a career-high 23.6 shots per game and increased his 3-point attempts from 8.2 to 10.6 per game from the 2022-23 season to the 2023-24 season.

If the usage stays the same for Luka – and it should – I think he's undervalued if this prop is anywhere below 30.5.

Alex Caruso UNDER 4.5 assists (-145)

I can't get behind this endorsement of Alex Caruso, even if the Oklahoma City Thunder's new guard plays a larger role on the ball when Shai Gilgeous-Alexander isn't on the court.

In his career, Caruso averaged 2.9 assists per game, but never averaged more than 4.0 assists per game in a single season.

SGA and Jalen Williams will be the primary ballplayers on this Thunder team, and I don't think Caruso will fill Josh Giddey's playmaking void in this offense.

During the preseason, Caruso had 13 assists in five games and only managed 4.5 dimes once.

That number is far too high for the veteran in his first game with the Thunder.

Chris Paul OVER 7.5 assists (-130)

The Point God with a prop at his season opener?

Last season with the Golden State Warriors, CP3 averaged 6.8 assists per game, primarily as a substitute (40 of his 58 games were off the bench).

Now he takes on a starting role at Spurs and can count on an elite lob threat in sensation Victor Wembanyama.

Paul only had two seasons in his career where he averaged less than 7.8 assists per game, and I expect Gregg Popovich will rely on him to lead this team – especially if the Spurs make the playoffs want to achieve.

Don't be shocked if CP3 hits double-digit assists on Thursday night.

DeMar DeRozan OVER 19.5 points (-125)

The Kings acquired DeMar DeRozan in a sign-and-trade deal with the Chicago Bulls this offseason, and DeRozan is expected to play an important role in their offense.

DeRozan has averaged at least 20.1 points per game every season since the 2013-14 season, but he's projecting 19.5 points to open the season.

I like the OVER for DeRozan as the Kings will likely try to get him acclimated to their offense. Additionally, the Wolves struggled with wingers in their first game of the season, allowing Rui Hachimura 18 points and LeBron James 16 points.

DeRozan should also lead the offense when De'Aaron Fox is not on the field, allowing him to be a focal point and leading scorer. He should score 20+ points in his first game in Sacramento.

Odds are updated regularly and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and needs help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Find Peter Deweys NBA betting record here (Futures included). You can also follow my daily pieces on BetStamp here.