Yankees can turn rotation advantages into a winning formula for the World Series

LOS ANGELES – When the Yankees and Dodgers last faced off in October, the World Series revolved around the left arm of Fernando Valenzuela.

He owned 1981 from the first day of the season and didn't miss it. Valenzuela was an emergency starter on opening day and pitched a shutout. That began a streak of eight straight complete games this year, or as many as there have been in two months across the entire major leagues this season. Success and a distinctive style – he looked skyward at the start of his performance – while firing screwballs that stunned batsmen, gave birth to “Fernandomania”. The phenomenon would leave a mark on lifelong Dodger fans, particularly those in Los Angeles who shared his Mexican roots.

But no game has left a greater mark on Valenzuela, and none has been as memorable as Game 3 of the 1981 World Series in the sadness he felt upon learning of his death on Tuesday at the age of 63. The final start of his 20-year season, in The (still) unprecedented Rookie of the Year and Cy Young win was his fifth in 17 days this postseason. That included a must-win Game 3 on three days' rest, as the Yankees had won the first two games in the Bronx.

Valenzuela gave up two in the third inning, two more in the fourth and none after that. Los Angeles took the lead in the fifth period. Valenzuela threw a complete game with 147 pitches. The Dodgers won and never lost again.

The Yankees flew west on Wednesday – the 43rd anniversary of that tenacious, defining performance from Valenzuela – to face the Dodgers in the World Series for the first time since 1981, in a completely different sport. There hasn't been a complete game in the playoffs since Houston's Justin Verlander in Game 2 of the 2017 ALCS against the Yankees, nor in the World Series since Kansas City's Johnny Cueto in Game 2 in 2015 against the Mets.

If the performance had been the same today, Valenzuela would have been eliminated in the third or fourth inning. Only two of 76 starts this postseason have exceeded 100 pitches, with only one producing an out in the eighth inning.

Still, much of the 120th World Series — the 12th between these historic teams — will depend on how you start pitching. On paper, the Yankees have an advantage because you can fill in the names of four Yankee starters. Los Angeles had to miss two bullpen games in the NLCS, and manager Dave Roberts has already revealed that at least Game 3 or 4 of the World Series will be replacement games only.

One NL manager said, “I think the more innings the Yankees get from their starters and the more innings they force the Dodgers to use their bullpen, that's their recipe for success.”

Essentially, offensively, it feels like a World Series between two late 1990 versions of the Yankees. Both grind at-bats, generate a lot of traffic on base and get into opposing bullpens. This has become a less successful strategy in recent years as full bullpens have been filled with closer-type monsters instead of middle-inning weaklings.

But even stuff monsters have breaking points. Pens are overwhelmed and overexposed. Since 2019, hitters have an OPS of .828 in 476 plate appearances when facing a reliever for at least the third time in the postseason. You have 21 home runs. On the 20th, Juan Soto beat Hunter Gaddis of Cleveland to decide the AL pennant. The 21st was Will Smith's two-run blast off the Mets' Phil Maton that all but assured the Dodgers of the deciding NLCS Game 6.

And scouts who were with the Dodgers in the playoffs say the intra-game quality/durability was questionable for the traditional starters, particularly Game 1 starter Jack Flaherty in his last start against the Mets. Maybe a week off will help revive him.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto's two-hit, no-run, seven-inning dominance produced baseball's best batting average for a Dodger in 22 regular-season games against the Yankees. That was on June 7th. He made one more start before being sidelined for three months with a rotator cuff strain. In his seven starts since returning, including three in the playoffs, the right-hander has not thrown more than 73 pitches or five innings.

This version of Walker Buehler is also no more than a five-inning pitcher, but the Dodgers can't go anywhere else with Tyler Glasnow, Clayton Kershaw, Gavin Stone, Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May on the IL.

The Mets can attest that the Dodgers pen is very good. Still, the Yankees will have to win a battle of attrition against them by eliminating starters early to make bullpen play even more problematic. And they need to get innings from their starters to protect their good, deep pen from being seen again and again by a strong, long lineup.

That starts with Game 1 starter Gerrit Cole. Can he be a workhorse twice in this series? Can Carlos Rodon get 18 outs at least once, if not twice? Can Luis Gil and Clarke Schmidt play the Dodgers lineup twice and get 15 outs?

Nobody has to throw 147 throws on three days of rest. The man who did it will be remembered in this World Series.

But Aaron Boone has a rotation advantage here if he can get more out of his starters and thus potentially demand less and more from his backups.