Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford has fallen off a Matt Ryan-like cliff in 2024

Matthew Stafford has by no means objectively played well for the Los Angeles Rams this season. There are several reasons why fans should remain optimistic that he can turn things around in the near future – such as restoring his health at receiver and along the offensive line – but that is the reality of the situation we currently find ourselves in.

It's not uncommon for QBs to fall off a cliff in their mid to late 30s. That's exactly what happened to Matt Ryan after he was traded from the Atlanta Falcons to the Indianapolis Colts. Ryan was supposed to help a team that was competitive with a late Phillip Rivers take the next step, but ultimately he wasn't the same quarterback we'd been used to for more than a decade.

The same cliff has obviously come for Stafford, although he still has time to make his way back. Realistically, the demise of NFL quarterbacks is happening quickly and the decline is drastic.

Below are the following quarterback performances. Which are which? If you're brave, let us know the order in the comments below before reading further.

Matthew Stafford's first six games with the Rams in 2024

Matt Ryan's final NFL season with the Colts in 2022

Bo Nix's first seven career games with the Broncos in 2024

Below is each passer's Pro Football Focus (PFF) Offensive Grade, followed by Ball Shot Rate (BTT%), Turnover Worthy Play Rate (TWP%), and Adjusted Completion Rate (ADJ%):

Mystery QB A

63.8 offensive grade; 1.2% BTT%; 4.3% TWP%; 78.6%ADJ%

Mystery QB B

60.3 offensive rating, 3.3% BTT%; 2.1% TWP%; 71.7%ADJ%

Mystery QB C

56.5 offensive grade; 1.4% BTT%; 4.0% TWP%; 72.3%ADJ%

The correct order is as follows:

Ryan-A

Nothing – B

Stafford – C

Ryan finished his 2022 season in Indianapolis with 3,057 yards, 14 TDs, 13 INTs and a 67% completion rate. The former MVP played 12 games and was benched once in favor of Sam Ehlinger.

It's worth noting that Stafford and Ryan weren't mobile threats in those seasons. On the other hand, Nix has 26 scrambles and 47 rushes for 255 yards and 3 TDs in seven contests.

Why did I compare to Bo Nix?

Nix was the sixth quarterback selected in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft and has posted the worst performance among first-round rookies so far this season. Still, Nix plays with his legs and the Denver Broncos are 4-3.

There's also a straw man when the idea of ​​leaving Stafford and recruiting a rookie comes up. Fans say there would be a significant step down from a rookie to Stafford, but that's simply not true. Even the worst top rookie this season would be an improvement over what LA has now overall and would add a much-needed running element.

How does 2024 compare to the rest of Stafford's career?

Stafford's 56.5 PFF offensive grade is easily his worst since his rookie season in 2009 (45.2), in which he threw 13 touchdowns and 20 interceptions. His big-time throw rate this year was 3.3%, followed by a turnover-worthy play rate of 4.8% and an adjusted completion rate of 65.4%. The former Detroit Lion never had a single grade below 60.0 from 2009 to 2024. This is also the first season since his rookie year in which he has thrown more interceptions (4) than touchdowns (3), but it's still early in the year.

It's time to worry about Matthew Stafford

While much of the blame for the offensive struggles can be attributed to a revolving door of offensive linemen and a pure receiving corps, Stafford is clearly part of the problem for the Rams.

Individually, Stafford makes fewer of the “big throws” he is known for. Last season he led in this metric in the first half of the year. I also wrote this offseason that the veteran was in for a step backwards in terms of his turnover-worthy play rate, as his performance in 2023 was largely an outlier over the course of his career. We're seeing that number rise to levels it hasn't reached in the last decade and a half in the NFL. Both metrics for Stafford are eerily in the same range as Ryan's final year in the NFL with the Colts in 2022. The Colts cut Ryan after that season and he began a career in broadcasting. Does this sound familiar?

The Rams are 2-4 and on the verge of a losing season. On deck Thursday night are the Minnesota Vikings, who have suffered just one loss, followed by the Seattle Seahawks, who lead the NFC West. .500 is on the table for Los Angeles, but so is a 2-6 record. If the Rams fall out of the NFC West contention and the wild card hunt, it's time to turn things around at the quarterback position and start over with a rookie in 2025.

This is an otherwise young roster that is old at some of the most important positions: QB, WR, OT and CB. The Rams need a young signal-caller who can grow with the rest of a developing roster, and 2025 is quickly becoming the year to hit the reset button.