Top tips from the CFB betting splits for Saturday October 12th

Today we have a huge selection of Week 7 college football workouts with nearly 100 games to choose from. Let’s explore where smart money is headed using our VSiN CFB betting splits. These come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10 minutes.

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Penn State (5-0, 4th place) narrowly defeated UCLA 27-11 and remained undefeated, but could not assert itself as a 30-point home favorite. On the other hand, USC (3-2) has lost two of its last three games and just lost outright to Minnesota 24-17 as an 8.5-point away favorite. This line opened with Penn State listed as a 5.5-point road favorite. The public sees an easy win and cover for Penn State, and 65% of the spread bets are on scoring against the top-ranked Nittany Lions. However, despite such lopsided support, we saw Penn State fall from -5.5 to -3.5. In the last 24 hours we have seen USC fall from +4 to +3.5. Why would the oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for the public to report when they're already bashing Penn State? Because the professionals sided with USC and the points, which led to a sharp backward movement for the unpopular Trojans. USC receives just 35% of the spread bets, providing remarkable value in a high-stakes late afternoon game. The Trojans, as an unrated dog, have a low buy value following a win after a loss to a ranked opponent. The Sharps expect a higher scoring game, increasing the total score from 48.5 to 51.5.

Ohio State (5-0, No. 2) just beat Iowa 35-7 and is the home favorite by 17.5 points. Meanwhile, Oregon (5-0, No. 3) narrowly defeated Michigan State 31-10, but couldn't hold on as a 22.5-point home favorite. This line opened with Ohio State listed as a 4-point road favorite. The public thinks this line is far too short and is rushing to the window to give powerhouse Ohio State the short straw. However, despite receiving 77% of the spread bets, Ohio State fell from -4 to -3. This suggests strong reverse line movement in Oregon, as the line has been moving steadily in their direction all week despite being a highly unpopular game. One of the contrarian games of the week, Oregon received just 23% of the spread bets in a nationally televised, high-stakes primetime showdown at 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC. When two top-five teams face off, the Dog is 27-17 ATS (61%) with an 18% ROI since 2005. The Ducks are a low-buy, high-sell game since they didn't get it done last week have to cover while Ohio State covered easily. Oregon also enjoys a day's rest, as it last played at home on Friday, while Ohio State played on Saturday and now has to travel to the Pacific Northwest. Oregon also has value as a “dog that can score” system competition (35 PPG), keeping pace or covering back doors. Sharps also hit the over, taking the total to 54 from 51.5. The Over gets about 75% of the bets and dollars, a hefty helping of Pro and Joe support. Weather shouldn't be a concern as the forecast calls for low 70s with partly cloudy skies and mild winds of 5 mph.

Iowa State (5-0, 11th) narrowly defeated Baylor 43-21 and is a 12.5-point home favorite. Similarly, West Virginia (3-2) just defeated Oklahoma State 38-14 to win as 3-point road dogs. This line opened with Iowa State listed as a 3-point road favorite. The public sees an easy win and good coverage for the Cyclones, who have the far better win-loss record and ranking. With 65% of spread bets backing Iowa State, we saw a slight increase in the Cyclones to -3.5. However, despite such one-sided support, we see West Virginia up +3.5 (-115), suggesting liability and a possible buyback from the Mountaineers, as well as the catch. Some businesses are even slowly returning to +3. Reading between the lines, we see a slight line freeze and possible reverse line movement for the Mountaineers. West Virginia receives only 35% of the spread bets but 55% of the spread dollars, a sharply contrarian “lower stakes, higher dollars” betting split. The Mountaineers have notable “betting against the public” value as they only receive about a third of the tickets to a heavily-betted primetime showdown at 8 p.m. ET on FOX. West Virginia has a buy-low-sell high as an unranked home dog against a ranked opponent. The Mountaineers are also a conference dog system matchup, with the built-in familiarity and rivalry aspect leveling the playing field and helping the team score points. Sharps reached the over and took the total from 51 to 53.5. The over receives 63% of the bets and 77% of the money, a smart deviation in the over bets.