UTEP vs. Western Kentucky Prediction and Best Bets – NCAAF Tips for Week 7

The UTEP Miners could be in for a long night when they take on the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers tonight.

The Miners were terrible on both sides of the ball and because of their atrocious defense My predictions for UTEP vs. Western Kentucky have Kentucky running back Elijah Young taking the field in Bowling Green.

Learn more in my college football picks for Thursday, October 10th.

UTEP vs Western Kentucky prediction and best bet

My best choice
Elijah Young over 24.5 yards (-115 at bet365)
Picks made at the time of writing may not reflect live odds.

My analysis
The UTEP Miners defense has been abysmal this season, whether against the run or the pass. The Miners rank 117th in opponent completion percentage and have an interception rate of less than 1%. And that's because UTEP's opponents ran the ball on more than 61% of their snaps.

And even though UTEP's opponents didn't throw the ball much, they did take advantage of the Miner defense in one area by passing it to the running backs. Southern Utah and Nebraska combined to attempt only three passes to running backs, but UTEP's other three opponents had success by targeting their passes.

Sam Houston State, Colorado State and Liberty all saw their third-down backs catch at least two passes for more than 20 yards despite low completion rates. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers running back Elijah Young should be licking his lips.

That's because he ranks third on Western's team in scoring and has caught 20 of the 24 passes he's thrown through five games. He has a 17% usage rate on pass downs, easily the highest on the team, and was targeted 15 times on 70 routes against three non-Power Four opponents.

UTEP's pass coverage has been giving up yards after the catch like they're going out of style, and that's where Young may have the most success. His average depth of target is less than a yard, but he has averaged nearly 9.0 YAC per catch and has averaged 7.5 yards on passes 1-9 yards past the line of scrimmage.

Western Kentucky ranks 25th nationally in completion percentage, and Caden Veltkamp doesn't throw offsides very often. The Hilltoppers are averaging more than 36 passes attempted per game, and Young will accomplish his goals.

He has received 24+ yards receiving in all three games against non-P4 schools and is averaging 40 yards receiving in those three contests. I expect Young to have a game similar to his performance against Middle Tennessee State, where he caught five passes for 64 yards.

Same parlay between UTEP and Western Kentucky (SGP)

Elijah Young for 24.5 yards

Western Kentucky Alternate Spread -23.5

Caden Veltkamp 2+ passing touchdowns

Western Kentucky will not only cover the lead, but win by at least 24 points. UTEP has scored just 55 points in four games against FBS opponents, seven of which came via scoop-and-score last week. The Miners have kept games within 20 points because opponents ran the ball, but Western will go to the air and run up the score.

Only two of UTEP's five opponents have attempted more than 23 passes, and both Dylan Raiola and Hunter Watson threw two touchdowns. Veltkamp has thrown at least 30 passes in each of his last three games, including eight touchdown passes in that span. He'll get multiple TD throws against a terrible UTEP secondary.

Learn how to place a bet in the same game with these helpful tips and strategies.

UTEP vs Western Kentucky odds

UTEP vs Western Kentucky live odds

UTEP opening odds against Western Kentucky

• Spread of UTEP vs. Western Kentucky: Western Kentucky -19
• UTEP vs Western Kentucky Moneyline: UTEP +700, Western Kentucky -1,100
• UTEP vs Western Kentucky Over/Under: 56.5

Odds courtesy of BetMGM.

UTEP vs. Western Kentucky spread and over/under analysis

• Western Kentucky is ahead by 19.5 points after opening the line anywhere between -17.5 and -20.5. UTEP failed to cover in four of its five games, including a loss to Southern Utah in which it led by a touchdown. Western is 4-1 ATS and only fails to secure against Alabama.
• This UTEP team doesn't just fight to score points and stop teams from gaining yards; It shoots itself in the foot with ball losses and penalties. The Miners are also trying to play fast on offense and will have a tough time against a solid Western secondary. The Hilltoppers cause multiple turnovers and cover the spread with ease.
• After a starting low of 55.5 points, the total rose to 58.5 before falling back to 57.5 points. The under is 4-1 in UTEP games, with three of Western's last four games also being under.
• I lean forward. The Under has scored in UTEP games largely because its opponents ran the ball most of the time. Western will throw it more often and score quicker, and the Toppers tend to give up some big plays. Garbage timing for UTEP could help tremendously in driving the number up.

UTEP vs Western Kentucky betting trend worth knowing

UTEP has reached the over in the first half in four of its last five road games (+2.85 units / 52% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for UTEP vs. Western Kentucky.

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