2024-2025 winter outlook for the Tampa Bay region

ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. – After a wetter than normal winter last year, things appear to be changing for this year.

A weak La Niña could develop early this winter. There is currently a 75 percent chance of La Niña developing this winter and a 25 percent chance that neutral conditions will continue.

La Niña refers to cooler than average equatorial water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean.

This can actually impact the weather in North America.

During a typical La Niña pattern, the jet stream remains primarily in the northern part of the country.

The jet stream is a narrow band of fast, high-altitude winds that serves as the main path for storm systems.

The jet stream also separates the cold Canadian air in the north from the warm subtropical air in the south.

Because Florida has a jet stream far to the north, temperatures are typically above normal during a La Niña winter.

However, with weak La Niña conditions expected, other factors could play a role in how this winter unfolds.

Precipitation outlook

Due to a possible La Niña this winter, long-term seasonal models are mostly consistent with below-average precipitation.

Even if this La Niña is weak, the storm track will likely remain north of us, even in the event of short migrations south.

Therefore, the chance of rainfall in Tampa this winter is moderate to high.

Remember that winter is our dry season, so even in a typical winter we don't see much precipitation.

Temperature outlook

The temperature forecast for this winter may be a little more difficult to determine.

In a typical La Niña, temperatures will be above average across the entire state of Florida, with the jet stream located well to the north.

However, the NAO, or North Atlantic Oscillation, may play a small role in what we saw this winter.

The NAO refers to the strength of pressure patterns in the North Atlantic.

When the NAO is positive, there is a strong pressure gradient between the Central and North Atlantic.

Generally, this results in a strong west-east wind pattern and a “flat and fast” jet stream.

This typically means storm systems remain weaker and move due west to east across the country (usually in the Northern Plains).

When the NAO is negative, the opposite is true.

This means that the pressure gradient in the North Atlantic is weaker and weaker westerly winds occur.

This allows the jet stream to move more undulating and fall further south and north over North America.

During this pattern, strong northeasterly winds can be observed across the northeastern United States.

Storm systems in this pattern move more slowly, can increase in strength, and tend to descend further south before moving northeast.

The NAO usually changes throughout the winter. So don't expect this to have an impact on the entire season.

However, a negative NAO could disrupt the La Niña pattern from time to time this winter and allow the jet stream to migrate southward.

While this may not give us the majority of the rain from these storm systems, a lowered jet stream may bring some cold fronts to our neck of the woods.

Conclusion

To put all this in layman's terms, expect many days to be near or above average in the Tampa area this winter.

Keep in mind that the average high temperature in Tampa never drops below 70 degrees.

However, I expect there will be some short cold spells this winter as the La Niña that develops will be weak and not immune to other factors.

Due to weak signals from La Niña, confidence in the seasonal outlook forecast is slightly lower than average when it comes to the overall temperature forecast for this winter.

I expect this winter to be drier and warmer than normal overall, but I also expect some short periods of cooler and wetter weather.

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